Thinking long term

Putting a plan in place to better others and focus on the present

Our society is becoming increasingly short-term as we become more dependent on technology. Apps are measured on user engagement, and the more they get our eyeballs to fixate on the screen, the better for them financially. Humans have this fundamental trait; we love to consume controversial media, whether it be conflict, misinformation, or other crises. Formally, the behavior is known as negativity bias and helps us flag threats to our environment in a world to keep us safe. That’s why we all, including myself, find it so challenging to avoid content on social media showcasing the trials and tribulations of life.

Thinking long term is very challenging, especially as consumerism in the Western world has wired our brains into pleasing our ego with instant gratification. My objective here is to shed light on some valuable frameworks I’ve discovered that put long-term thinking into a more approachable practice and how I’ve approached building those capabilities at a younger age. With these ideas in your mind, considering the long-term impacts of pursuing entrepreneurship may help shape how you think about your immediate career decisions.

Roman Kryznaric’s six ways to think in the long term

I begin by defining why it is essential to think long-term in the first place. Who even cares? While various material benefits will improve your personal and career development with a more systematic approach to long-term thinking, I believe it is broader than that. Roman Kryznaric, philosopher and author, describes long-term thinking succinctly as being a good ancestor. I love that description so much. It’s not just about being a good ancestor to those in your immediate family, but for the world that comes after you. You can find the link here to an article where he describes the factors he believes cause short-termism and six ways to combat that with long-term thinking. Here are his ways to do that:

Deep-time humility

Our time on earth is minuscule compared to civilization’s deep history and the future to come. Expanding on that idea, Kryznaric describes our time on this earth as an eyeblink in cosmic time. We must recognize the existence of this universe long before and after humanity is around on this planet. Reminding yourself of this should help take some of the pressure off the urge to consume now.

Legacy mindset

We have inherited this world from our ancestors and all of the good and bad that came with it. When we consider what we want to be remembered for when we are gone, we should strive to leave a legacy that leaves the world a better place than when we came into it. Leaving a legacy may look different for each individual, but the idea is grounded in looking out for the generations that come after you.

Intergenerational justice

As an extension of leaving a positive legacy for our inheritors, we are responsible for respecting our planet and finding ways to improve it to protect the seven generations ahead of us, as described by Kryznaric. In calculations described by Kryznaric and originally calculated by Richard Fisher, approximately 7.7 billion people currently live on this planet, and 100 billion have lived before us. What’s astonishing is that an estimated 6.75 trillion more people will inhabit the earth over the next 50,000 years! When considering those who will come after us, we must be more conscious of making decisions that keep this in mind.

Cathedral thinking

We have all been to structures that leave us in complete awe. Recently I visited the Sacré-Cœur in Paris, a Roman Catholic church that began construction in the late 19th century after the Franco-Prussian War, and it did just that. I could not get over the grandeur and detail, and the structure left me speechless. It took almost 40 years to build the Sacré-Cœur, implying that many who were there to break ground didn’t see its completion in 1914. Cathedral thinking is just that: “the practice of envisaging and embarking on projects with time horizons stretching decades and even centuries into the future.” As an entrepreneur, one can view their business as exactly that, a large project spanning an indefinite period, even if your investment horizon is much shorter. Very few opportunities in life allow us to build such long-term projects.

Holistic forecasting

Our future is highly uncertain. We can predict what’s to come, but we will consistently forecast the wrong outcome, even with innovations in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Using a concept from finance, if we assume future outcomes (or returns) are random, the volatility of continuously-compounded (log) annual outcomes increases by the square root of time as time increases. This assumption means that by holding the uncertainty of life constant raises its riskiness over time. Why is this important to know? Equipped with this knowledge, we should be thinking about various future outcomes and how to plan for those, on the basis of risk management. The concept applies to our own lives and society at large.

Transcendent goal

Finally, we must consider our objectives in the pursuit of practicing long-term thinking. Kryznaric takes a grander, environmentally-focused approach by defining our purpose as living within our means on this planet. To ground this element more towards your individual career goals, I believe what matters most is identifying what your north star is for when it is all said and done. What will be that one unattainable goal you constantly march towards in your life? 

These are difficult questions to answer but ones we should be thinking about regularly. I aim to reevaluate my long-term goals at the end of each year and adjust as needed as I mature and learn new things about myself.

Deferred gratification

The common thread embedded into these long-term thinking tactics is deferred gratification. As I’ve discussed earlier, we constantly deal with stimuli in our daily lives that prevent us from doing what’s best for our future. It makes sense why we act this way since we never immediately experience the benefits of putting in the hard work. We get impatient when we don’t see results from our current actions and instead resort to mediums that can provide some sort of immediate reward. Why do you think it’s so hard for us to consistently work out, make healthy choices, and hold stock positions indefinitely?

The same applies to MBAs assessing various career opportunities available after graduation. Many firms offer competitive salaries, hefty bonuses, and prestige without the opportunity for meaningful work experience over time. They sacrifice their autonomy and development for short-term incentives without recognizing the actual costs to their happiness, relationships, and career opportunities in the long run. But again, it’s only natural because of our temptations to consume now and failure to consider tomorrow.

Enhancing your abilities

Though I am far from perfect in thinking with a longer time horizon, I have found a few behaviors that have enabled me to do so more regularly: meditation, independence, patience, and curiosity.

Our minds constantly bounce back and forth between the past and the future. As discussed earlier, the future brings us excitement yet anxiety, given the vast unknown. The past brings us fond memories yet resentment, regret, and depression. Bouncing between these two states of mind causes us to lose a grip on the present and be unproductive. How can we think long-term without being present with now? This is where meditation comes in. Learning to be present through meditation takes years and is a constant evolution. But the practice helps center us to live our lives and assess challenges more objectively, including long-term planning.

John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist, once said, “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." Keeping a mind independent of the influences of life is impossible and not recommended. However, developing a contrarian mindset in a world that pushes consumerism and negativity to drive engagement is encouraged to improve your long-term thinking abilities. It comes down to having a balance of both. We must recognize conventional thinking, analyze why public sentiment believes they do, and be curious enough to develop a perspective on where that might be flawed. When the world is in panic, be opportunistic and when it is euphoric, be cautious. We can only do this with a bias towards long-term thinking.

Everything is volatile. Our emotions, the stock market, you name it. With that uncertainty, making decisions to protect us from that volatility in the short term is tempting. If we feel stressed, we might have a drink to calm our nerves. If we think the stock market will crash for some reason, we sell a position. However, these decisions are rarely suitable for the long term. Practicing patience can be difficult, especially during times of crisis, but our ability to endure volatility directly benefits our long-term prospects. The next time uncertainty unravels our life, hold strong for your future’s sake.

In the context of search funds

I have always found comfort in dreaming about the future and working backwards from those dreams to guide my short-term decisions. For me, extending my time horizon is a challenge and priority that I believe will pay off in the long run. By choosing the ETA path, I sacrificed a higher earning potential in the short run, a more exciting lifestyle, work prestige, and living in a desirable location for what I hope to be long-term benefits. While the future will be highly uncertain, I can be sure that the accelerated learning of entrepreneurship will offset those sacrifices – senior leadership experience at a young age, completing a transaction, building a culture, creating value, and much more. I hope more MBAs consider this path by extending their time horizon and the impact they plan to make in this world.